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Once again, the rating agencies stressed the Group's sound financing structure, robust earnings and sound equity base.
Once again, the rating agencies stressed the Group's sound financing structure, robust earnings and sound equity base. However, the changes came after the rating agencies last Friday increased the Spanish government bond rating horizon (BBB+/positive). Spain's rating is up. On Friday, S&P reported that it has increased its Spanish rating guidance (BBB+) from steady to up.
The rating agencies emphasized in their prognosis that the country's robust economy will sustain in 2017 and 2018 with GDP expected to grow by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Given the bright prospects, Spain's rating could rise in the next 24 month if it does: Continuing to deliver robust macroeconomic performances and fiscal consolidations in line with the Agency's expectation and improving the ECB's money policy transmittal mechanism.
Forecasts for the first three months are lowered to 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.9 per cent in 2020 (from 2.4 per cent and 2 per cent respectively). Nevertheless, the narrative indicates that an improved performance of output could be supported by the progressive rebound of the international environment, an increasing expansion in fiscal policies, persistently low fuel costs and the favourable resolution of uncertainties from various quarters.
These scenarios would result in a pay rise above headline growth, a fall in employment of up to 12 per cent in 2020 and the generation of nearly 630,000 employment in the next two years.
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